全文来了！鲍威尔释放重磅降息信号，到底说了啥？（中英文对照）(quan wen lai le bao wei er shi fang zhong bang jiang xi xin hao dao di shuo le sha zhong ying wen dui zhao)

专zhuān题tí：聚jù焦jiāo杰jié克kè逊xùn霍huò尔ěr全quán球qiú央yāng行xíng年nián会huì 美měi联lián储chǔ主zhǔ席xí鲍bào威wēi尔ěr暗àn示shì即jí将jiāng降jiàng息xī

　　华huá尔ěr街jiē见jiàn闻wén

　　北běi京jīng时shí间jiān23日rì晚wǎn10点diǎn，美měi联lián储chǔ主zhǔ席xí鲍bào威wēi尔ěr在zài杰jié克kè逊xùn霍huò尔ěr全quán球qiú央yāng行xíng年nián会huì上shàng重zhòng磅bàng发fā声shēng。

　　会huì议yì上shàng，鲍bào威wēi尔ěr释shì放fàng了le迄qì今jīn为wèi止zhǐ最zuì为wèi明míng确què的de降jiàng息xī信xìn号hào，他tā表biǎo示shì： 政zhèng策cè调diào整zhěng的de时shí机jī已yǐ经jīng到dào来lái。降jiàng息xī时shí机jī和hé节jié奏zòu将jiāng取qǔ决jué于yú后hòu续xù数shù据jù、前qián景jǐng变biàn化huà和hé风fēng险xiǎn平píng衡héng。

　　他tā认rèn为wèi，目mù前qián的de政zhèng策cè利lì率lǜ水shuǐ平píng为wèi美měi联lián储chǔ提tí供gōng了le充chōng足zú的de空kōng间jiān来lái应yīng对duì可kě能néng面miàn临lín的de任rèn何hé风fēng险xiǎn，包bāo括kuò劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng进jìn一yī步bù恶è化huà的de风fēng险xiǎn。“通tōng胀zhàng的de上shàng行xíng风fēng险xiǎn已yǐ经jīng减jiǎn弱ruò，就jiù业yè的de下xià行xíng风fēng险xiǎn则zé有yǒu所suǒ增zēng加jiā。美měi联lián储chǔ关guān注zhù双shuāng重zhòng使shǐ命mìng各gè自zì所suǒ面miàn临lín的de风fēng险xiǎn。”

　　以yǐ下xià为wèi讲jiǎng话huà全quán文wén（中zhōng英yīng对duì照zhào）：

　　Four and a half years after COVID-19‘s arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading． Inflation has declined significantly． The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic． Supply constraints h***e normalized． And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed． Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， ***oiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored． While the task is not complete， we h***e made a good deal of progress toward that outcome．

　　在zài新xīn冠guān病bìng毒dú到dào来lái四sì年nián半bàn后hòu，与yǔ疫yì情qíng相xiāng关guān的de最zuì严yán重zhòng的de经jīng济jì扭niǔ曲qū正zhèng在zài消xiāo退tuì。通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng已yǐ明míng显xiǎn下xià降jiàng。劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng不bù再zài过guò热rè，现xiàn在zài的de状zhuàng况kuàng也yě不bù如rú疫yì情qíng前qián那nà么me紧jǐn俏qiào。供gōng给gěi限xiàn制zhì已yǐ经jīng正zhèng常cháng化huà。我wǒ们men两liǎng项xiàng任rèn务wù的de风fēng险xiǎn平píng衡héng已yǐ经jīng发fā生shēng了le变biàn化huà。我wǒ们men的de目mù标biāo是shì恢huī复fù价jià格gé稳wěn定dìng的de同tóng时shí保bǎo持chí强qiáng劲jìn的de劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng，避bì免miǎn失shī业yè率lǜ急jí剧jù上shàng升shēng，这zhè是shì通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī没méi有yǒu充chōng分fēn锚máo定dìng时shí通tōng常cháng会huì出chū现xiàn的de早zǎo期qī去qù通tōng胀zhàng特tè征zhēng。我wǒ们men已yǐ经jīng朝cháo着zhe这zhè个gè目mù标biāo取qǔ得dé了le很hěn大dà进jìn展zhǎn。虽suī然rán任rèn务wù尚shàng未wèi完wán成chéng，但dàn我wǒ们men已yǐ经jīng朝cháo着zhe这zhè一yī结jié果guǒ取qǔ得dé了le很hěn大dà进jìn展zhǎn。

　　Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy． I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low．

　　今jīn天tiān，我wǒ将jiāng首shǒu先xiān讨tǎo论lùn当dāng前qián的de经jīng济jì形xíng势shì和hé货huò币bì政zhèng策cè的de未wèi来lái路lù径jìng。然rán后hòu，我wǒ将jiāng转zhuǎn向xiàng对duì疫yì情qíng以yǐ来lái经jīng济jì事shì件jiàn的de讨tǎo论lùn，探tàn讨tǎo为wèi什shén么me通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng上shàng升shēng到dào一yī代dài人rén以yǐ来lái的de最zuì高gāo水shuǐ平píng，以yǐ及jí为wèi什shén么me通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ下xià降jiàng如rú此cǐ之zhī多duō，而ér失shī业yè率lǜ却què保bǎo持chí在zài低dī位wèi。

　　Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近jìn期qī政zhèng策cè展zhǎn望wàng

　　Let‘s begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy．

　　让ràng我wǒ们men从cóng当dāng前qián的de形xíng势shì和hé近jìn期qī政zhèng策cè前qián景jǐng开kāi始shǐ。

　　For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． The Federal Open Market Committee‘s （FOMC） primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and ***ropriately so． Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period． Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation． High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today．

　　在zài过guò去qù三sān年nián的de大dà部bù分fēn时shí间jiān里lǐ，通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ远yuǎn高gāo于yú我wǒ们men 2% 的de目mù标biāo，劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng极jí其qí紧jǐn张zhāng。联lián邦bāng公gōng开kāi市shì场chǎng委wěi员yuán会huì （FOMC） 的de主zhǔ要yào重zhòng点diǎn是shì降jiàng低dī通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ，这zhè是shì理lǐ所suǒ当dāng然rán的de。在zài此cǐ之zhī前qián，当dāng今jīn大dà多duō数shù美měi国guó人rén还hái没méi有yǒu经jīng历lì过guò长zhǎng期qī高gāo通tōng胀zhàng的de痛tòng苦kǔ。通tōng胀zhàng带dài来lái了le巨jù大dà的de困kùn难nán，尤yóu其qí是shì对duì于yú那nà些xiē最zuì无wú力lì承chéng担dān食shí品pǐn、住zhù房fáng和hé交jiāo通tōng等děng基jī本běn生shēng活huó必bì需xū品pǐn高gāo昂áng成chéng本běn的de人rén来lái说shuō。高gāo通tōng胀zhàng引yǐn发fā的de压yā力lì和hé不bù公gōng平píng感gǎn至zhì今jīn仍réng然rán存cún在zài。

　　Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices h***ing risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months （figure 1） ． After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed． My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent．

　　我wǒ们men的de限xiàn制zhì性xìng货huò币bì政zhèng策cè有yǒu助zhù于yú恢huī复fù总zǒng供gōng需xū平píng衡héng，缓huǎn解jiě通tōng胀zhàng压yā力lì，并bìng确què保bǎo通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī保bǎo持chí良liáng好hǎo锚máo定dìng。通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng现xiàn在zài更gèng接jiē近jìn我wǒ们men的de目mù标biāo，物wù价jià在zài过guò去qù12个gè月yuè中zhōng上shàng涨zhǎng了le2.5%（图tú1）。继jì年nián初chū有yǒu所suǒ凝níng滞zhì之zhī后hòu，我wǒ们men朝cháo着zhe2%的de目mù标biāo又yòu取qǔ得dé了le进jìn展zhǎn。我wǒ越yuè来lái越yuè有yǒu信xìn心xīn，通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ正zhèng沿yán着zhe可kě持chí续xù的de道dào路lù回huí到dào2%。

　　Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions： low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes．

　　谈tán到dào就jiù业yè，在zài疫yì情qíng爆bào发fā前qián的de几jǐ年nián里lǐ，我wǒ们men看kàn到dào了le长zhǎng期qī强qiáng劲jìn的de劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng给gěi社shè会huì带dài来lái的de重zhòng大dà利lì益yì：低dī失shī业yè率lǜ、高gāo参cān与yǔ率lǜ、历lì史shǐ性xìng的de低dī种zhǒng族zú就jiù业yè差chà距jù，以yǐ及jí通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng率lǜ低dī而ér稳wěn定dìng、实shí际jì工gōng资zī增zēng长zhǎng健jiàn康kāng且qiě越yuè来lái越yuè集jí中zhōng在zài低dī收shōu入rù人rén群qún中zhōng。

　　Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state． The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 （figure 2）． Most of that increase has come over the past six months． So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn． Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring． Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable． Job gains remain solid but h***e slowed this year.Job vacancies h***e fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range． The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019． Nominal wage gains h***e moderated． All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent． It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon． We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions．

　　如rú今jīn，劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng已yǐ从cóng之zhī前qián的de过guò热rè状zhuàng态tài大dà幅fú降jiàng温wēn。失shī业yè率lǜ在zài一yī年nián多duō前qián开kāi始shǐ上shàng升shēng，目mù前qián为wèi4.3%，以yǐ历lì史shǐ标biāo准zhǔn衡héng量liàng仍réng然rán较jiào低dī，但dàn比bǐ2023年nián初chū的de水shuǐ平píng高gāo出chū将jiāng近jìn整zhěng整zhěng一yī个gè百bǎi分fēn点diǎn（图tú2）。其qí中zhōng大dà部bù分fēn上shàng升shēng是shì在zài过guò去qù六liù个gè月yuè中zhōng实shí现xiàn的de。到dào目mù前qián为wèi止zhǐ，失shī业yè率lǜ上shàng升shēng并bìng不bù是shì裁cái员yuán增zēng加jiā的de结jié果guǒ，而ér裁cái员yuán是shì经jīng济jì衰shuāi退tuì时shí期qī的de典diǎn型xíng情qíng况kuàng。相xiāng反fǎn，这zhè一yī增zēng长zhǎng主zhǔ要yào反fǎn映yìng了le工gōng人rén供gōng给gěi的de大dà幅fú增zēng加jiā以yǐ及jí之zhī前qián疯fēng狂kuáng的de招zhāo聘pìn速sù度dù有yǒu所suǒ放fàng缓huǎn。即jí便biàn如rú此cǐ，劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng的de降jiàng温wēn是shì毋wú庸yōng置zhì疑yí的de。就jiù业yè增zēng长zhǎng保bǎo持chí稳wěn健jiàn，但dàn今jīn年nián有yǒu所suǒ放fàng缓huǎn。职zhí位wèi空kōng缺quē下xià降jiàng，职zhí位wèi空kōng缺quē与yǔ失shī业yè的de比bǐ率lǜ已yǐ回huí到dào疫yì情qíng前qián的de水shuǐ平píng。招zhāo聘pìn率lǜ和hé离lí职zhí率lǜ现xiàn在zài低dī于yú 2018年nián和hé2019年nián的de水shuǐ平píng。名míng义yì工gōng资zī增zēng长zhǎng有yǒu所suǒ放fàng缓huǎn。总zǒng而ér言yán之zhī，现xiàn在zài的de劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng不bù如rú2019年nián疫yì情qíng之zhī前qián那nà么me紧jǐn张zhāng，那nà一yī年nián的de通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ低dī于yú2%。劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng似shì乎hū不bù太tài可kě能néng在zài短duǎn期qī内nèi成chéng为wèi通tōng胀zhàng压yā力lì上shàng升shēng的de根gēn源yuán。我wǒ们men不bù寻xún求qiú或huò欢huān迎yíng劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng进jìn一yī步bù降jiàng温wēn。

　　Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace． But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation． The upside risks to inflation h***e diminished． And the downside risks to employment h***e increased． As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate．

　　总zǒng体tǐ而ér言yán，经jīng济jì继jì续xù以yǐ稳wěn健jiàn的de速sù度dù增zēng长zhǎng。但dàn通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng和hé劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng数shù据jù显xiǎn示shì，情qíng况kuàng正zhèng在zài不bù断duàn变biàn化huà。通tōng胀zhàng的de上shàng行xíng风fēng险xiǎn已yǐ经jīng减jiǎn弱ruò。就jiù业yè的de下xià行xíng风fēng险xiǎn也yě有yǒu所suǒ增zēng加jiā。正zhèng如rú我wǒ们men在zài上shàng一yī次cìFOMC中zhōng强qiáng调diào的de那nà样yàng，我wǒ们men关guān注zhù双shuāng重zhòng任rèn务wù中zhōng的de两liǎng方fāng面miàn风fēng险xiǎn。

　　The time has come for policy to adjust． The direction of tr***el is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks．

　　现xiàn在zài是shì政zhèng策cè调diào整zhěng的de时shí候hòu了le。前qián进jìn的de方fāng向xiàng是shì明míng确què的de，降jiàng息xī的de时shí机jī和hé步bù伐fá将jiāng取qǔ决jué于yú即jí将jiāng到dào来lái的de数shù据jù、不bù断duàn变biàn化huà的de前qián景jǐng以yǐ及jí风fēng险xiǎn的de平píng衡héng。

　　We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability． With an ***ropriate dialing back of policy restraint， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market． The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions．

　　我wǒ们men将jiāng尽jǐn一yī切qiè努nǔ力lì支zhī持chí强qiáng劲jìn的de劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng，同tóng时shí在zài价jià格gé稳wěn定dìng方fāng面miàn力lì求qiú进jìn一yī步bù进jìn展zhǎn。随suí着zhe政zhèng策cè约yuē束shù的de适shì当dāng收shōu敛liǎn，我wǒ们men有yǒu充chōng分fēn的de理lǐ由yóu认rèn为wèi，经jīng济jì将jiāng回huí到dào2%的de通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ，同tóng时shí保bǎo持chí强qiáng劲jìn的de劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng。我wǒ们men目mù前qián的de政zhèng策cè利lì率lǜ水shuǐ平píng为wèi我wǒ们men提tí供gōng了le充chōng足zú的de空kōng间jiān来lái应yīng对duì可kě能néng面miàn临lín的de任rèn何hé风fēng险xiǎn，包bāo括kuò劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng状zhuàng况kuàng不bù受shòu欢huān迎yíng的de进jìn一yī步bù疲pí软ruǎn的de风fēng险xiǎn。

　　The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通tōng胀zhàng的de起qǐ落luò

　　Let‘s now turn to the questions of why inflation rose， and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low． There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion.It is， of course， too soon to make definitive asses***ents． This period will be ***yzed and debated long after we are gone．

　　现xiàn在zài让ràng我wǒ们men来lái谈tán谈tán为wèi什shén么me通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng会huì上shàng升shēng，为wèi什shén么me在zài失shī业yè率lǜ保bǎo持chí低dī位wèi的de情qíng况kuàng下xià通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng却què大dà幅fú下xià降jiàng。关guān于yú这zhè些xiē问wèn题tí的de研yán究jiū越yuè来lái越yuè多duō，现xiàn在zài是shì讨tǎo论lùn的de好hǎo时shí机jī。当dāng然rán，现xiàn在zài做zuò出chū明míng确què的de评píng估gū还hái为wèi时shí过guò早zǎo。在zài我wǒ们men离lí开kāi后hòu很hěn长zhǎng一yī段duàn时shí间jiān，人rén们men仍réng将jiāng对duì这zhè段duàn时shí期qī进jìn行xíng分fēn析xī和hé辩biàn论lùn。

　　The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world． It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks． As so often h***ens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated． Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S． Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act． At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help st***e off an economic depression．

　　新xīn冠guān疫yì情qíng的de爆bào发fā迅xùn速sù导dǎo致zhì全quán球qiú经jīng济jì停tíng摆bǎi。这zhè是shì一yī个gè充chōng满mǎn不bù确què定dìng性xìng和hé严yán重zhòng下xià行xíng风fēng险xiǎn的de时shí期qī。正zhèng如rú危wēi机jī时shí期qī经jīng常cháng发fā生shēng的de那nà样yàng，美měi国guó人rén适shì应yīng并bìng创chuàng新xīn。各gè国guó政zhèng府fǔ做zuò出chū了le非fēi凡fán的de回huí应yīng，尤yóu其qí是shì美měi国guó国guó会huì一yī致zhì通tōng过guò了le《关guān怀huái法fǎ案àn》。在zài美měi联lián储chǔ，我wǒ们men以yǐ前qián所suǒ未wèi有yǒu的de程chéng度dù运yùn用yòng我wǒ们men的de权quán力lì来lái稳wěn定dìng金jīn融róng体tǐ系xì并bìng帮bāng助zhù避bì免miǎn经jīng济jì萧xiāo条tiáo。

　　After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again． As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis．

　　在zài经jīng历lì了le历lì史shǐ上shàng令lìng人rén深shēn刻kè但dàn短duǎn暂zàn的de衰shuāi退tuì之zhī后hòu，2020年nián年nián中zhōng，经jīng济jì再zài次cì开kāi始shǐ增zēng长zhǎng。随suí着zhe严yán重zhòng偏piān向xiàng下xià行xíng的de风fēng险xiǎn消xiāo退tuì，以yǐ及jí经jīng济jì重zhòng新xīn开kāi放fàng，我wǒ们men依yī然rán面miàn临lín着zhe风fēng险xiǎn，可kě能néng会huì再zài次cì经jīng历lì像xiàng全quán球qiú金jīn融róng危wēi机jī之zhī后hòu那nà样yàng缓huǎn慢màn复fù苏sū的de痛tòng苦kǔ。

　　Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021． Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021． The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery． Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services． But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional s***ings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods．

　　国guó会huì在zài 2020 年nián底dǐ和hé 2021 年nián初chū提tí供gōng了le大dà量liàng额é外wài的de财cái政zhèng支zhī持chí。2021 年nián上shàng半bàn年nián，支zhī出chū强qiáng劲jìn复fù苏sū。持chí续xù的de疫yì情qíng影yǐng响xiǎng了le复fù苏sū的de模mó式shì。对duì新xīn冠guān疫yì情qíng的de持chí续xù担dān忧yōu拖tuō累lèi了le面miàn对duì面miàn服fú务wù的de支zhī出chū。但dàn被bèi压yā抑yì的de需xū求qiú、刺cì激jī政zhèng策cè、疫yì情qíng导dǎo致zhì的de工gōng作zuò和hé休xiū闲xián习xí惯guàn的de变biàn化huà，以yǐ及jí与yǔ服fú务wù支zhī出chū受shòu限xiàn相xiāng关guān的de额é外wài储chǔ蓄xù，都dōu促cù使shǐ消xiāo费fèi者zhě在zài商shāng品pǐn上shàng的de支zhī出chū出chū现xiàn历lì史shǐ性xìng激jī增zēng。

　　The pandemic also wreaked h***oc on supply conditions． Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021． The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 （figure 3）．Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand （figure 4）． Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis．

　　疫yì情qíng还hái对duì供gōng给gěi端duān造zào成chéng了le严yán重zhòng破pò坏huài。疫yì情qíng开kāi始shǐ时shí有yǒu 800 万wàn人rén离lí开kāi了le劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng，劳láo动dòng力lì数shù量liàng仍réng比bǐ 2021 年nián初chū疫yì情qíng前qián的de水shuǐ平píng低dī 400 万wàn人rén。劳láo动dòng力lì直zhí到dào2023年nián年nián中zhōng才cái恢huī复fù到dào疫yì情qíng前qián的de趋qū势shì（图tú3）。 工gōng人rén流liú失shī、国guó际jì贸mào易yì联lián系xì中zhōng断duàn以yǐ及jí需xū求qiú水shuǐ平píng以yǐ及jí组zǔ成chéng的de结jié构gòu性xìng变biàn化huà等děng因yīn素sù使shǐ供gōng应yīng链liàn陷xiàn入rù困kùn境jìng（图tú4）。显xiǎn然rán，这zhè与yǔ全quán球qiú金jīn融róng危wēi机jī后hòu的de缓huǎn慢màn复fù苏sū完wán全quán不bù同tóng。

　　Enter inflation． After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021． The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles． My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory． Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be ***ropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation．

　　通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng开kāi始shǐ显xiǎn现xiàn。在zài 2020 年nián全quán年nián低dī于yú目mù标biāo水shuǐ平píng后hòu，通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng在zài 2021 年nián 3 月yuè和hé 4 月yuè飙biāo升shēng。最zuì初chū的de通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng爆bào发fā是shì集jí中zhōng的de，而ér不bù是shì广guǎng泛fàn的de，汽qì车chē等děng短duǎn缺quē商shāng品pǐn的de价jià格gé大dà幅fú上shàng涨zhǎng。我wǒ和hé我wǒ的de同tóng事shì一yī开kāi始shǐ就jiù判pàn断duàn，这zhè些xiē与yǔ疫yì情qíng相xiāng关guān的de因yīn素sù不bù会huì持chí续xù，因yīn此cǐ，通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng的de突tū然rán上shàng升shēng很hěn可kě能néng很hěn快kuài就jiù会huì过guò去qù，而ér不bù需xū要yào货huò币bì政zhèng策cè应yīng对duì——简jiǎn而ér言yán之zhī，通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng将jiāng是shì暂zàn时shí的de。长zhǎng期qī以yǐ来lái的de标biāo准zhǔn思sī维wéi是shì，只zhǐ要yào通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī保bǎo持chí良liáng好hǎo稳wěn定dìng，央yāng行xíng就jiù可kě以yǐ忽hū略lüè通tōng胀zhàng的de暂zàn时shí上shàng升shēng。

　　The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream ***ysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board.The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down．

　　“暂zàn时shí性xìng”这zhè艘sōu好hǎo船chuán挤jǐ满mǎn了le人rén，大dà多duō数shù主zhǔ流liú分fēn析xī师shī和hé发fā达dá经jīng济jì体tǐ央yāng行xíng行xíng长zhǎng都dōu支zhī持chí这zhè一yī观guān点diǎn。他tā们men普pǔ遍biàn预yù期qī供gōng应yīng状zhuàng况kuàng将jiāng迅xùn速sù改gǎi善shàn，需xū求qiú的de快kuài速sù复fù苏sū将jiāng顺shùn其qí自zì然rán，需xū求qiú将jiāng从cóng商shāng品pǐn转zhuǎn向xiàng服fú务wù，从cóng而ér降jiàng低dī通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ。

　　For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis． Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected （figure 5）． The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications． Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services． It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored． We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November． Financial conditions began to tighten． After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022．

　　一yī段duàn时shí间jiān内nèi，数shù据jù与yǔ暂zàn时shí性xìng***jiǎ设shè相xiāng一yī致zhì。2021 年nián 4 月yuè至zhì 9 月yuè，核hé心xīn通tōng胀zhàng的de月yuè度dù读dú数shù每měi月yuè都dōu在zài下xià降jiàng，尽jǐn管guǎn进jìn展zhǎn慢màn于yú预yù期qī（图tú 5）。正zhèng如rú我wǒ们men的de沟gōu通tōng所suǒ反fǎn映yìng的de那nà样yàng，这zhè种zhǒng情qíng况kuàng在zài年nián中zhōng左zuǒ右yòu开kāi始shǐ减jiǎn弱ruò。从cóng 10 月yuè开kāi始shǐ，数shù据jù变biàn得dé与yǔ暂zàn时shí性xìng***jiǎ设shè背bèi道dào而ér驰chí。9 通tōng胀zhàng上shàng升shēng，并bìng从cóng商shāng品pǐn扩kuò展zhǎn到dào服fú务wù。很hěn明míng显xiǎn，高gāo通tōng胀zhàng不bù是shì暂zàn时shí的de，如rú果guǒ要yào保bǎo持chí通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī的de良liáng好hǎo稳wěn定dìng，就jiù需xū要yào强qiáng有yǒu力lì的de政zhèng策cè应yīng对duì。我wǒ们men意yì识shí到dào了le这zhè一yī点diǎn，并bìng从cóng 11 月yuè开kāi始shǐ转zhuǎn变biàn。金jīn融róng状zhuàng况kuàng开kāi始shǐ收shōu紧jǐn。在zài逐zhú步bù取qǔ消xiāo资zī产chǎn购gòu买mǎi后hòu，我wǒ们men于yú 2022 年nián 3 月yuè开kāi始shǐ加jiā息xī。

　　By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent． New supply shocks ***eared． Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices． The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID w***es in the U.S． 

　　到dào2022年nián初chū，总zǒng体tǐ通tōng胀zhàng超chāo过guò6%，核hé心xīn通tōng胀zhàng超chāo过guò5%。新xīn的de供gōng给gěi冲chōng击jī出chū现xiàn。俄é乌wū冲chōng突tū导dǎo致zhì能néng源yuán和hé大dà宗zōng商shāng品pǐn价jià格gé大dà幅fú上shàng涨zhǎng。供gōng给gěi状zhuàng况kuàng的de改gǎi善shàn和hé需xū求qiú从cóng商shāng品pǐn转zhuǎn向xiàng服fú务wù的de时shí间jiān比bǐ预yù期qī的de要yào长zhǎng得dé多duō，部bù分fēn原yuán因yīn是shì美měi国guó新xīn一yī轮lún的de新xīn冠guān浪làng潮cháo。

　　High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences： rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1***0s． Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to ***oiding．

　　高gāo通tōng胀zhàng率lǜ是shì一yī种zhǒng全quán球qiú现xiàn象xiàng，反fǎn映yìng了le共gòng同tóng的de经jīng历lì：商shāng品pǐn需xū求qiú迅xùn速sù增zēng加jiā、供gōng应yīng链liàn紧jǐn张zhāng、劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng紧jǐn张zhāng以yǐ及jí大dà宗zōng商shāng品pǐn价jià格gé大dà幅fú上shàng涨zhǎng。全quán球qiú通tōng胀zhàng的de本běn质zhì不bù同tóng于yú上shàng世shì纪jì70年nián代dài以yǐ来lái的de任rèn何hé时shí期qī。那nà时shí，高gāo通tōng胀zhàng已yǐ经jīng根gēn深shēn蒂dì固gù——这zhè是shì我wǒ们men尽jǐn全quán力lì避bì免miǎn的de结jié果guǒ。

　　By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021． This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade． But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels． There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage （figure 6）．Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022．

　　2022年nián年nián中zhōng，劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng极jí度dù紧jǐn张zhāng，就jiù业yè人rén数shù比bǐ2021年nián年nián中zhōng增zēng加jiā了le650万wàn以yǐ上shàng。劳láo动dòng力lì需xū求qiú的de增zēng加jiā在zài一yī定dìng程chéng度dù上shàng是shì通tōng过guò工gōng人rén重zhòng新xīn加jiā入rù劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng来lái实shí现xiàn的de，因yīn为wèi人rén们men对duì健jiàn康kāng的de担dān忧yōu开kāi始shǐ消xiāo退tuì。但dàn劳láo动dòng力lì供gōng给gěi仍réng然rán受shòu到dào限xiàn制zhì，2022年nián夏xià天tiān的de劳láo动dòng力lì参cān与yǔ率lǜ仍réng远yuǎn低dī于yú疫yì情qíng前qián的de水shuǐ平píng。从cóng2022年nián3月yuè到dào年nián底dǐ，职zhí位wèi空kōng缺quē数shù几jǐ乎hū是shì失shī业yè人rén数shù的de两liǎng倍bèi，表biǎo明míng劳láo动dòng力lì严yán重zhòng短duǎn缺quē（图tú6）。通tōng胀zhàng在zài2022年nián6月yuè达dá到dào7.1%的de峰fēng值zhí。

　　At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth． Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment． I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done．

　　两liǎng年nián前qián，我wǒ曾céng在zài这zhè个gè讲jiǎng台tái上shàng讨tǎo论lùn过guò，解jiě决jué通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng问wèn题tí可kě能néng会huì带dài来lái失shī业yè率lǜ上shàng升shēng和hé经jīng济jì增zēng长zhǎng放fàng缓huǎn等děng一yī些xiē痛tòng苦kǔ。有yǒu人rén认rèn为wèi，控kòng制zhì通tōng货huò膨péng胀zhàng需xū要yào经jīng济jì衰shuāi退tuì和hé长zhǎng期qī的de高gāo失shī业yè率lǜ。我wǒ表biǎo达dá了le我wǒ们men无wú条tiáo件jiàn的de承chéng诺nuò，即jí全quán面miàn恢huī复fù价jià格gé稳wěn定dìng，并bìng坚jiān持chí下xià去qù，直zhí到dào任rèn务wù完wán成chéng。

　　The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability． We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023． We h***e held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 （figure 7）．

　　FOMC在zài履lǚ行xíng责zé任rèn方fāng面miàn没méi有yǒu退tuì缩suō，我wǒ们men的de行xíng动dòng有yǒu力lì地dì表biǎo明míng了le我wǒ们men对duì恢huī复fù价jià格gé稳wěn定dìng的de决jué心xīn。我wǒ们men在zài2022年nián将jiāng政zhèng策cè利lì率lǜ上shàng调diào了le425bp，并bìng在zài2023年nián再zài次cì上shàng调diào 100bp。自zì2023年nián7月yuè以yǐ来lái，我wǒ们men一yī直zhí将jiāng政zhèng策cè利lì率lǜ维wéi持chí在zài目mù前qián的de限xiàn制zhì性xìng水shuǐ平píng（图tú7）。

　　The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation． The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result．

　　通tōng胀zhàng在zài2022 年nián夏xià季jì达dá到dào峰fēng值zhí。在zài低dī失shī业yè率lǜ的de背bèi景jǐng下xià，通tōng胀zhàng从cóng两liǎng年nián前qián的de峰fēng值zhí下xià降jiàng了le4.5%，这zhè是shì一yī个gè可kě喜xǐ且qiě历lì史shǐ罕hǎn见jiàn的de结jié果guǒ。

　　How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate？

　　如rú何hé达dá到dào通tōng胀zhàng下xià降jiàng而ér失shī业yè率lǜ没méi有yǒu急jí剧jù上shàng升shēng到dào超chāo过guò估gū计jì的de自zì然rán失shī业yè率lǜ的de？

　　Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline． The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation． Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace． As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures．

　　疫yì情qíng相xiāng关guān的de供gōng需xū扭niǔ曲qū以yǐ及jí对duì能néng源yuán和hé大dà宗zōng商shāng品pǐn市shì场chǎng的de严yán重zhòng冲chōng击jī，是shì高gāo通tōng胀zhàng的de重zhòng要yào驱qū动dòng因yīn素sù，而ér它tā们men的de逆nì转zhuǎn是shì通tōng胀zhàng下xià降jiàng的de关guān键jiàn部bù分fēn。这zhè些xiē因yīn素sù的de消xiāo除chú花huā费fèi的de时shí间jiān比bǐ预yù期qī要yào长zhǎng得dé多duō，但dàn最zuì终zhōng在zài随suí后hòu的de去qù通tōng胀zhàng中zhōng发fā挥huī了le重zhòng要yào作zuò用yòng。限xiàn制zhì性xìng货huò币bì政zhèng策cè导dǎo致zhì总zǒng需xū求qiú放fàng缓huǎn，这zhè与yǔ总zǒng供gōng给gěi的de改gǎi善shàn相xiāng结jié合hé，减jiǎn轻qīng了le通tōng胀zhàng压yā力lì，同tóng时shí继jì续xù保bǎo持chí良liáng性xìng增zēng长zhǎng。随suí着zhe劳láo动dòng力lì需xū求qiú也yě有yǒu所suǒ放fàng缓huǎn，职zhí位wèi空kōng缺quē率lǜ/失shī业yè率lǜ已yǐ经jīng从cóng历lì史shǐ高gāo位wèi恢huī复fù正zhèng常cháng，主zhǔ要yào是shì通tōng过guò职zhí位wèi空kōng缺quē的de下xià降jiàng，而ér非fēi大dà规guī模mó和hé破pò坏huài性xìng的de裁cái员yuán，使shǐ得dé劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng不bù再zài是shì通tōng胀zhàng压yā力lì的de来lái源yuán。

　　A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations． Standard economic models h***e long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective． That‘s what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation． It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold． Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market． An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack．

　　关guān于yú通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī的de重zhòng要yào性xìng。长zhǎng期qī以yǐ来lái，标biāo准zhǔn经jīng济jì模mó型xíng一yī直zhí反fǎn映yìng出chū这zhè样yàng一yī种zhǒng观guān点diǎn，即jí只zhǐ要yào通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī锚máo定dìng在zài我wǒ们men的de目mù标biāo上shàng，当dāng产chǎn品pǐn和hé劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng达dá到dào平píng衡héng时shí，通tōng胀zhàng就jiù会huì回huí到dào其qí目mù标biāo，而ér不bù会huì带dài来lái经jīng济jì松sōng弛chí。模mó型xíng是shì这zhè么me说shuō的de，但dàn自zì2000年nián代dài以yǐ来lái长zhǎng期qī通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī的de稳wěn定dìng性xìng并bìng没méi有yǒu经jīng受shòu过guò持chí续xù高gāo通tōng胀zhàng的de考kǎo验yàn。通tōng胀zhàng能néng否fǒu持chí续xù锚máo定dìng还hái远yuǎn不bù能néng得dé以yǐ保bǎo障zhàng。对duì脱tuō锚máo的de担dān忧yōu促cù成chéng了le一yī种zhǒng观guān点diǎn，即jí去qù通tōng胀zhàng将jiāng需xū要yào经jīng济jì（尤yóu其qí是shì劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng）的de松sōng弛chí。从cóng最zuì近jìn的de经jīng验yàn中zhōng得dé出chū的de一yī个gè重zhòng要yào结jié论lùn是shì，锚máo定dìng的de通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī，加jiā上shàng央yāng行xíng的de有yǒu力lì行xíng动dòng，可kě以yǐ促cù进jìn去qù通tōng胀zhàng，经jīng济jì松sōng弛chí并bìng不bù是shì必bì须xū的de。

　　This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply． While researchers differ in their ***roaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations h***e worked together to put inflation on what increasingly ***ears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective．

　　这zhè种zhǒng说shuō法fǎ将jiāng通tōng胀zhàng上shàng升shēng主zhǔ要yào归guī咎jiù于yú（经jīng济jì）过guò热rè以yǐ及jí暂zàn时shí扭niǔ曲qū的de需xū求qiú与yǔ受shòu限xiàn的de供gōng给gěi之zhī间jiān的de非fēi凡fán碰pèng撞zhuàng。尽jǐn管guǎn研yán究jiū人rén员yuán在zài方fāng法fǎ上shàng各gè不bù相xiāng同tóng，在zài某mǒu种zhǒng程chéng度dù上shàng他tā们men的de结jié论lùn上shàng也yě各gè不bù相xiāng同tóng，但dàn似shì乎hū正zhèng在zài形xíng成chéng一yī种zhǒng共gòng识shí，在zài我wǒ看kàn来lái就jiù是shì通tōng胀zhàng上shàng升shēng的de大dà部bù分fēn原yuán因yīn应yīng归guī咎jiù于yú这zhè场chǎng碰pèng撞zhuàng。总zǒng而ér言yán之zhī，我wǒ们men从cóng疫yì情qíng的de扭niǔ曲qū中zhōng恢huī复fù了le过guò来lái，我wǒ们men为wèi缓huǎn和hé总zǒng需xū求qiú所suǒ做zuò的de努nǔ力lì结jié合hé对duì预yù期qī的de锚máo定dìng，共gòng同tóng使shǐ通tōng胀zhàng走zǒu上shàng了le一yī条tiáo日rì益yì实shí现xiàn2%目mù标biāo的de可kě持chí续xù道dào路lù。

　　Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public‘s confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time． That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions．

　　只zhǐ有yǒu在zài锚máo定dìng通tōng胀zhàng预yù期qī的de情qíng况kuàng下xià才cái有yǒu可kě能néng在zài保bǎo持chí劳láo动dòng力lì市shì场chǎng强qiáng劲jìn的de同tóng时shí实shí现xiàn去qù通tōng胀zhàng，这zhè反fǎn映yìng了le公gōng众zhòng有yǒu信xìn心xīn央yāng行xíng将jiāng逐zhú渐jiàn达dá到dào2%左zuǒ右yòu的de通tōng胀zhàng目mù标biāo。这zhè种zhǒng信xìn心xīn是shì过guò去qù几jǐ十shí年nián来lái建jiàn立lì起qǐ来lái的de，并bìng且qiě通tōng过guò我wǒ们men的de行xíng动dòng得dé以yǐ加jiā强qiáng。

　　That is my asses***ent of events． Your mileage may vary．

　　这zhè是shì我wǒ对duì事shì件jiàn的de评píng估gū。可kě能néng因yīn人rén而ér异yì。

　　Conclusion 结jié论lùn

　　Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period． Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making ***ropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years． As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to critici*** and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework． The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and ***lying them flexibly to our current challenges．

　　最zuì后hòu，我wǒ想xiǎng强qiáng调diào的de是shì，事shì实shí证zhèng明míng，疫yì情qíng经jīng济jì与yǔ其qí他tā任rèn何hé经jīng济jì都dōu不bù同tóng，从cóng这zhè一yī特tè殊shū时shí期qī中zhōng我wǒ们men仍réng有yǒu许xǔ多duō东dōng西xī需xū要yào学xué习xí。我wǒ们men的de《长zhǎng期qī目mù标biāo和hé货huò币bì政zhèng策cè战zhàn略lüè声shēng明míng》强qiáng调diào，我wǒ们men致zhì力lì于yú每měi五wǔ年nián通tōng过guò一yī次cì全quán面miàn的de公gōng开kāi审shěn查chá来lái审shěn查chá我wǒ们men的de原yuán则zé并bìng做zuò出chū适shì当dāng调diào整zhěng。当dāng我wǒ们men在zài今jīn年nián晚wǎn些xiē时shí候hòu开kāi始shǐ这zhè一yī进jìn程chéng时shí，我wǒ们men将jiāng对duì批pī评píng和hé新xīn想xiǎng法fǎ持chí开kāi放fàng态tài度dù，同tóng时shí保bǎo持chí我wǒ们men框kuāng架jià的de优yōu势shì。我wǒ们men知zhī识shí的de局jú限xiàn性xìng——在zài疫yì情qíng期qī间jiān显xiǎn而ér易yì见jiàn——要yào求qiú我wǒ们men保bǎo持chí谦qiān逊xùn和hé质zhì疑yí精jīng神shén，专zhuān注zhù于yú从cóng过guò去qù吸xī取qǔ教jiào训xùn并bìng灵líng活huó地dì将jiāng其qí应yīng用yòng于yú我wǒ们men当dāng前qián的de挑tiāo战zhàn。

　　注zhù：鲍bào威wēi尔ěr讲jiǎng话huà稿gǎo原yuán文wén详xiáng见jiàn美měi联lián储chǔ官guān网wǎng，华huá尔ěr街jiē见jiàn闻wén略lüè有yǒu删shān节jié。

　　风fēng险xiǎn提tí示shì及jí免miǎn责zé条tiáo款kuǎn

　　市shì场chǎng有yǒu风fēng险xiǎn，投tóu资zī需xū谨jǐn慎shèn。本běn文wén不bù构gòu成chéng个gè人rén投tóu资zī建jiàn议yì，也yě未wèi考kǎo虑lǜ到dào个gè别bié用yòng户hù特tè殊shū的de投tóu资zī目mù标biāo、财cái务wù状zhuàng况kuàng或huò需xū要yào。用yòng户hù应yīng考kǎo虑lǜ本běn文wén中zhōng的de任rèn何hé意yì见jiàn、观guān点diǎn或huò结jié论lùn是shì否fǒu符fú合hé其qí特tè定dìng状zhuàng况kuàng。据jù此cǐ投tóu资zī，责zé任rèn自zì负fù。